Dow Jones Futures – Nov 25 – 29, 2019
S&P 500 Futures – Nov 25 – 29, 2019
Nasdaq Futures – Nov 25 – 29, 2019
Monday – November 25
In a statement yesterday published by the state-run Global Times, the Chinese government announced that it will take an active role governing intellectual property rights, raising penalties for those who violate it. This was taken as encouraging news in the markets which, in addition to Saturday’s announcement by a US official that a phase one deal could happen this December, may have contributed to today’s stock market rally.
The Dow Jones rallied more than 190 points, advancing to a record close at 28,066.47. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit all-time closing highs, closing at 3,133.64 and 8,632.49 respectively.
Traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech later today at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Annual Dinner in Providence, Rhode Island. Tomorrow, major economic reports include international trade, new home sales, and consumer confidence.
To date, the trade war environment–in which billions in tariffs have been levied on both sides–has been a prominent factor behind the volatility that has been shaking up investor sentiment and the broader market. Should a phase one deal pull through, the stock market outlook for the remainder of 2019 may arguably be forecasted as positive.
Tuesday – November 26
Indexes spend most of the trading day attempting to reclaim their overnight record highs. The overnight moves extended yesterday’s surge which was largely fueled by optimism on trade negotiation progress between the US and China. The Dow advanced 150 points, a dramatic move that was nearly mirrored by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Although a US official reported yesterday that a phase one trade deal may be reached by the end of the year, the clock is still ticking for tariffs (on Chinese goods) scheduled for December 15 . Whether a deal is reached before that date remains in question.
International trade report shows that the October US trade deficit stands at -$66.53 billion, down sharply from September’s -$70.55 deficit, and lower than the -$70.8 billion that economists had expected. New home sales figures came in at 733,000, higher than the anticipated consensus figure of 707,000. The rise in new home sales was likely boosted by low mortgage rates and strong employment. Consumer confidence, however, weakened slightly giving us the figure of 125.5, lower than the expected reading of 126.9.
A the end of the trading day, the Dow advanced 0.2% or 55.14 points to close at 28,121.68. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to end at 3,140.50. The Nasdaq closed higher at 8,647.93, up 0.2%.
Wednesday – November 27
On the day before the Thanksgiving holiday, the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced to record highs, completing four consecutive days of rallying. Today’s optimism may have been largely due to President Trump’s comments on Tuesday, indicating that the US and China were in the final stages of negotiation for a phase one trade deal.
Durable goods orders bucked expectations, coming in at 0.6% whereas consensus outlook was set to -0.7%. GDP figures show that the economy had grown at an annual rate of 2.1%, above the 1.9% that economists had expected. Jobless claims came in at 213,000 (for the week ending Nov 23), lower than the anticipated consensus figure of 215,000. Growth in income remain soft, with personal income coming in at 0.0% and consumer spending at 0.3%.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 3153.64. The Nasdaq climbed higher by 0.7% to 8705.18. The Dow advanced 0.2% to 28,164.
Thursday – November 28
Markets closed on Thanksgiving Day.
Friday – November 29
What headline volatility had given investors in the form of a strong month, headline volatility has once again taken away. China’s foreign ministry described President Trump’s signing of two legislative pieces in support of Hong Kong protesters as “sinister,” once again throwing cold water on the completion of a phase one trade deal. In addition, the Chinese foreign ministry announced the possibility of “strong countermeasures” aimed at the US. This potential stall in negotiations and escalation in trade hostilities foregrounds the December 15 deadline on yet more US tariffs on Chinese goods.
In other news, there are no major reports scheduled today.
The Dow fell 112.59 points, to close 0.4% lower at 28,051.41. The S&P 500 also pulled back 0.4%, closing at 3,140.98 . The Nasdaq slipped almost 0.5%, closing at 8,665.47. Despite today’s pullback, all is not lost in terms of monthly gains. The Dow is up 3.7%, for the month; the S&P 500, up 3.4%, while the Nasdaq advanced 4.5%–a strong ending to a relatively volatile month.
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